Monarch Baseline
Monarch gives a snapshot of recent income and expenses. The key is converting the period shown in the screenshot into monthly and annual numbers.
Cash-flow snapshot math
The screenshot period can be 1 month, 6 months, 12 months, or any other window.
Start withDivide byMonthly value
$138,040.97
total income in screenshot
÷
=
$23,006.83
monthly gross income
$128,668.64
total expenses in screenshot
÷
=
$21,444.77
all-in monthly expenses
Validation rule: because the Monarch expense number already includes mortgage, savings, debt payments, and regular spending, the baseline forecast should not add those same items again.
Adults and Retirement
The Adults section sets income, ages, retirement spending, and the safety multiple. The safety multiple is a withdrawal-rate shortcut: 25x is roughly the 4% rule; 28x is about 3.57%.
Retirement target math
Inflate spending first, then multiply by the safety multiple.
Start withInflation factorTarget
$125,000
retirement spending today
×
(1 + inflation)year
future dollars
=
Future spending
annual need in that year
Future spending
from row above
×
=
Portfolio target
investable assets needed
Kids and 529 Planning
Child costs should be age-based. Recurring costs and college savings usually run until age 18; childcare stops earlier.
Under 18Recurring kid costs = monthly kid cost × 12Food, activities, clothing, care
ChildcareAnnual childcare = monthly childcare × 12Only until childcare end age
529Annual 529 saving = monthly college saving × 12Should become its own account balance
CollegeCollege gap = estimated cost − 529 balanceCash first, then investments
529 account balance math
Each child should have a separately tracked education account.
Start withAdd growth and savingEnd balance
Beginning 529
current account balance
+
Investment growth + contributions
minus qualified withdrawals
=
Ending 529
available for education
Investment Growth and Inflation
Investment balances compound upward; spending targets inflate upward. Both are exponential over long time periods. The better model is not one return rate for everything; it is a weighted return based on the actual mix of stocks, real estate, cash, and other assets.
Conservative
4.5%
Base 6.5% minus 2 points. This is meant to feel closer to a lower-return or bond-heavy path.
Base
6.5%
The current default expected return in the dashboard. Treat this as the planning midpoint, not a promise.
Optimistic
8.0%
Base 6.5% plus 1.5 points. This is an equity-friendly path, still below the long-run S&P 500 average.
Your actual return
Needed
Requires Monarch performance history or beginning balance, ending balance, and cash flows for the period.
Known mixFrom your Monarch snapshot: real estate 45.1%, investments 43.4%, cash 10.4%, vehicles 1.1%.Based on $2,042,520.51 total assets
Needs splitThe investments bucket is still too broad. It should be split into stocks, bonds, crypto, 529s, IRA/401(k), RSUs, and any alternatives.This is how we get your actual mix instead of a generic mix
Asset mix return math
Each asset class gets its own return, then the forecast adds them together by weight.
Asset weightAsset returnWeighted return
43.4%
investments from Monarch
×
stock/bond/crypto blend
needs account-level split
=
investment contribution
to total asset return
45.1%
real estate from Monarch
×
home appreciation rate
Case-Shiller style input
=
property contribution
to total asset return
×
cash yield
savings/T-bill style input
=
cash contribution
to total asset return
Conservative weighted
2.68%
Uses investments 4.5%, real estate 1.5%, cash 2.0%, vehicles -15%.
Base weighted
4.43%
Uses investments 6.5%, real estate 3.0%, cash 3.5%, vehicles -10%.
Optimistic weighted
5.89%
Uses investments 8.0%, real estate 4.5%, cash 4.5%, vehicles -7%.
Best next input
Holdings
Break the $886,070 investment bucket into stock, bond, crypto, 529, IRA/401(k), and cash sleeves.
Compound growth math
This is the same structure for investments, wages, and inflated expenses.
Start withGrowth factorFuture value
Beginning balance
investments today
×
(1 + return)years
compound return
=
Future balance
before new contributions
Actual return math
This is how the wiki would calculate your household return once the needed Monarch values exist.
Start withRemove cash flowsPeriod return
Ending balance − Beginning balance
investment account change
−
Net contributions
deposits minus withdrawals
÷
Beginning balance
simple period return
1 + period return
growth over measured months
^
12 ÷ months
annualize the period
−
HistoricalS&P 500 history is useful context, not a forecast. Long-run nominal returns have been around 10%, before inflation.Good upper-context source for equity-heavy portfolios
PropertyReal estate should use home-price appreciation, not stock-market returns. Case-Shiller is the right public benchmark for national home prices.Your main house and rental/property assets should be modeled separately from stocks
CashCash should use cash yield, not investment return. Savings accounts, money market funds, and T-bills are closer references.Cash protects liquidity but usually has lower long-term real growth
ForwardCapital market assumptions from firms like Vanguard and BlackRock are forecasts, and often lower than historical averages.Better source for future planning ranges
PersonalYour actual return should come from account performance, not from balance categories. A balance snapshot cannot separate return from contributions.Needs Monarch performance data or manual period inputs
Critical Missing Modules
These should become real dashboard modules because they materially change future net worth.
401(k)Employee contribution = lesser of salary × contribution rate, IRS limit, or plan limit2026 employee limit: $24,500, plus catch-up if eligible
MatchEmployer match = salary × matched pay percentage × match rateFree compensation; should increase retirement assets
HSAHSA balance = beginning balance + contributions + growth − medical withdrawals2026 family limit: $8,750, plus catch-up if eligible
529529 balance = beginning balance + contributions + growth − education withdrawalsTrack separately for Pax and Vivi
Taxes
A serious forecast should project spendable cash flow after taxes, not just gross income minus expenses. The dashboard now uses your prior return history to estimate an effective household tax rate.
Historical tax burden math
Prior return data turns taxes into a household-specific forecast assumption.
Start withDivide byEffective tax rate
Total taxes paid
federal + state + payroll when available
÷
Total income
same return years
=
Tax burden
used by the forecast
Forecast cash-flow bridge
Pre-tax savings reduce taxable pay and move into invested assets.
Start withSubtractTaxable income
Gross income
salary, bonus, equity
−
Pre-tax 401(k) + HSA
modeled savings input
=
Taxable pay
multiplied by effective rate
After-tax income
pay after taxes
−
Spending + debt + savings
cash obligations
=
Monthly surplus
cash available to invest
2026MFJ standard deduction is $32,200 for tax year 2026.Use as federal reference, not full household tax burden
401(k)Pre-tax deferrals can reduce taxable pay; 2026 employee limit is $24,500 per person.Important before big purchases because it affects cash flow and investments
HSAFamily HSA contributions can reduce taxable pay when eligible; 2026 family limit is $8,750.Can be modeled as pre-tax savings
DecisionsRemodels, vacation homes, and job changes have different tax effects: basis, interest/property-tax limits, rental rules, withholding, and marginal brackets.Planning guidance only; verify with a CPA before acting
